Congressional Calendar and Control Risks: Evidence from United States Mega-cap, Broad-based and Innovation-based Stock Market Performance

Abstract

United Siaies stock market returns are examined in the context of the Congressional calendar and the incidence of party control. A legislative calendar effect in returns is deemed possible when the Congress is in-session. Previously published studies report a strong negative calendar effect in historical returns for the mega-cap Dow Jones Industrial Average. In this study, similar though less pronounced results are observed for more recent periods. More pronounced negative calendar effects are observed in both the broader S&P 500 Index and the more innovation oriented NASDAQ. Finally, evidence is presented that performance of both the S&P and NASDAQ indices have been related to the incidence of party control in the U.S. Congress.